Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the three-term incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and two independents in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a substantial 2024 presidential margin, combined with Auchincloss’s fundraising edge exceeding $3.6 million and the absence of competitive polling, underpins the market’s assessment of his position. Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur running unopposed in the Republican primary, faces structural barriers typical of GOP candidates in this solidly Democratic seat. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$47,249 Wol.
$47,249 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Wol.
$47,249 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Wol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the three-term incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and two independents in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a substantial 2024 presidential margin, combined with Auchincloss’s fundraising edge exceeding $3.6 million and the absence of competitive polling, underpins the market’s assessment of his position. Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur running unopposed in the Republican primary, faces structural barriers typical of GOP candidates in this solidly Democratic seat. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$47,249Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the three-term incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and two independents in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a substantial 2024 presidential margin, combined with Auchincloss’s fundraising edge exceeding $3.6 million and the absence of competitive polling, underpins the market’s assessment of his position. Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur running unopposed in the Republican primary, faces structural barriers typical of GOP candidates in this solidly Democratic seat. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$47,249Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination for Massachusetts’ 4th congressional district on September 1 with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the three-term incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and two independents in the November 3 general election. The district’s consistent Democratic performance, including a substantial 2024 presidential margin, combined with Auchincloss’s fundraising edge exceeding $3.6 million and the absence of competitive polling, underpins the market’s assessment of his position. Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur running unopposed in the Republican primary, faces structural barriers typical of GOP candidates in this solidly Democratic seat. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political shift remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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