Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating faces minimal opposition in Massachusetts’s 9th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Keating’s repeated victories, including a 56 percent margin in 2024. A Republican primary challenger has emerged, yet the district’s voting patterns and fundraising environment leave little room for an upset. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly situated House seats. A late primary upset, unexpected scandal, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events at this stage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMA-09 House Election Winner
MA-09 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,198 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$4,241 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating faces minimal opposition in Massachusetts’s 9th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Keating’s repeated victories, including a 56 percent margin in 2024. A Republican primary challenger has emerged, yet the district’s voting patterns and fundraising environment leave little room for an upset. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly situated House seats. A late primary upset, unexpected scandal, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,439Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating faces minimal opposition in Massachusetts’s 9th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Keating’s repeated victories, including a 56 percent margin in 2024. A Republican primary challenger has emerged, yet the district’s voting patterns and fundraising environment leave little room for an upset. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly situated House seats. A late primary upset, unexpected scandal, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$8,439Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating faces minimal opposition in Massachusetts’s 9th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its consistent partisan lean and Keating’s repeated victories, including a 56 percent margin in 2024. A Republican primary challenger has emerged, yet the district’s voting patterns and fundraising environment leave little room for an upset. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly situated House seats. A late primary upset, unexpected scandal, or sharp national swing against Democrats could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability events at this stage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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