Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$47,087 Wol.
$47,087 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$47,087 Wol.
$47,087 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,383 Wol.
98%
Republican Party
$25,705 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$47,087Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$47,087Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district ranks among the nation's most Democratic-leaning seats, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+39 to D+40 based on recent presidential results. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 77-79% of the vote against several challengers and now faces Republican George McDermott in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising. Trader consensus at 97.6% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for such districts. Only an extraordinary national Republican wave, a late scandal involving the incumbent, or a major health event would realistically alter the outcome before resolution on November 3, 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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