New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNJ-01 House Election Winner
NJ-01 House Election Winner
$21,152 Wol.
$21,152 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$21,152 Wol.
$21,152 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,025 Wol.
93%
Republican Party
$6,127 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$21,152Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$21,152Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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