**The high 94.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated failure to advance past the Senate filibuster threshold.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, passed the House multiple times—including on April 10, 2025, and again on February 11, 2026—but has remained stalled in the Senate since its initial receipt there. With Republicans holding 53 seats, supporters need at least seven Democratic votes or procedural changes (such as ending the filibuster) to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold; neither has materialized despite repeated attempts. Key recent developments reinforcing this outlook include unsuccessful efforts to incorporate SAVE Act provisions into the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act and other vehicles in July 2026, followed by the Senate’s departure for August recess without floor action. Alternative paths, such as budget reconciliation or attaching the measure to must-pass legislation, have also faltered amid insufficient support and procedural hurdles. While the bill remains formally pending and the White House continues to prioritize it, the combination of divided Senate control, entrenched opposition, and the shrinking legislative calendar before the end of the 119th Congress has led traders to view enactment in 2026 as highly improbable.