Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature and signed into law in August 2025 fundamentally altered TX-32 by shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Democratic to R+8 or more, incorporating conservative East Texas areas and prompting the Democratic incumbent to seek another seat. This structural change positioned Republicans as heavy favorites in the November 2026 general election. Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after winning the March primary and advancing unopposed following his opponent's withdrawal, while Dan Barrios emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the altered district composition, historical voting patterns, and limited Democratic path to victory. The 80% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though general election turnout and any late developments could still influence the final margin.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$29,814 Wol.
$29,814 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
20%
$29,814 Wol.
$29,814 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$27,358 Wol.
81%
Democratic Party
$2,456 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature and signed into law in August 2025 fundamentally altered TX-32 by shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Democratic to R+8 or more, incorporating conservative East Texas areas and prompting the Democratic incumbent to seek another seat. This structural change positioned Republicans as heavy favorites in the November 2026 general election. Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after winning the March primary and advancing unopposed following his opponent's withdrawal, while Dan Barrios emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the altered district composition, historical voting patterns, and limited Democratic path to victory. The 80% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though general election turnout and any late developments could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$29,814Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature and signed into law in August 2025 fundamentally altered TX-32 by shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Democratic to R+8 or more, incorporating conservative East Texas areas and prompting the Democratic incumbent to seek another seat. This structural change positioned Republicans as heavy favorites in the November 2026 general election. Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after winning the March primary and advancing unopposed following his opponent's withdrawal, while Dan Barrios emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the altered district composition, historical voting patterns, and limited Democratic path to victory. The 80% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though general election turnout and any late developments could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$29,814Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature and signed into law in August 2025 fundamentally altered TX-32 by shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Democratic to R+8 or more, incorporating conservative East Texas areas and prompting the Democratic incumbent to seek another seat. This structural change positioned Republicans as heavy favorites in the November 2026 general election. Jace Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after winning the March primary and advancing unopposed following his opponent's withdrawal, while Dan Barrios emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the altered district composition, historical voting patterns, and limited Democratic path to victory. The 80% Republican consensus in trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though general election turnout and any late developments could still influence the final margin.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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