Incumbent Republican John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for Trump and other GOP statewide candidates, underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Democratic primary winner Justin Early faces structural disadvantages in a district anchored by suburban and exurban areas north of Austin that favor Republican candidates in general elections. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican. Late developments such as a significant national midterm swing, candidate-specific issues, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Williamson and Bell counties could narrow the margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$45,366 Wol.
$45,366 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$45,366 Wol.
$45,366 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,905 Wol.
93%
Democratic Party
$20,461 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for Trump and other GOP statewide candidates, underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Democratic primary winner Justin Early faces structural disadvantages in a district anchored by suburban and exurban areas north of Austin that favor Republican candidates in general elections. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican. Late developments such as a significant national midterm swing, candidate-specific issues, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Williamson and Bell counties could narrow the margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$45,366Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for Trump and other GOP statewide candidates, underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Democratic primary winner Justin Early faces structural disadvantages in a district anchored by suburban and exurban areas north of Austin that favor Republican candidates in general elections. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican. Late developments such as a significant national midterm swing, candidate-specific issues, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Williamson and Bell counties could narrow the margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$45,366Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong showings for Trump and other GOP statewide candidates, underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Democratic primary winner Justin Early faces structural disadvantages in a district anchored by suburban and exurban areas north of Austin that favor Republican candidates in general elections. All major forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican. Late developments such as a significant national midterm swing, candidate-specific issues, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in Williamson and Bell counties could narrow the margin, though historical patterns suggest limited scope for an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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