The Democratic Party's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the TX-30 House race reflects trader consensus on this safe Democratic Dallas-area district's entrenched partisan leanings, evidenced by past general election margins exceeding 74% for Democrats, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett's 85% win in 2024. Following Crockett's retirement to pursue a failed U.S. Senate bid, Rev. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary with 74% of the vote, leveraging his prominence as pastor of a major local church. The Republican primary advances to a May 26 runoff between Sholdon Daniels and Everett Jackson amid low GOP turnout, underscoring the challenger's uphill path in this Solid Democratic-rated seat per Cook Political Report. Realistic upset scenarios include a Democratic scandal, unprecedented Republican fundraising surge, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates for such flips in safe districts remain under 5%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,547 Wol.
92%
Republican Party
$1,991 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the TX-30 House race reflects trader consensus on this safe Democratic Dallas-area district's entrenched partisan leanings, evidenced by past general election margins exceeding 74% for Democrats, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett's 85% win in 2024. Following Crockett's retirement to pursue a failed U.S. Senate bid, Rev. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary with 74% of the vote, leveraging his prominence as pastor of a major local church. The Republican primary advances to a May 26 runoff between Sholdon Daniels and Everett Jackson amid low GOP turnout, underscoring the challenger's uphill path in this Solid Democratic-rated seat per Cook Political Report. Realistic upset scenarios include a Democratic scandal, unprecedented Republican fundraising surge, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates for such flips in safe districts remain under 5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,539Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the TX-30 House race reflects trader consensus on this safe Democratic Dallas-area district's entrenched partisan leanings, evidenced by past general election margins exceeding 74% for Democrats, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett's 85% win in 2024. Following Crockett's retirement to pursue a failed U.S. Senate bid, Rev. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary with 74% of the vote, leveraging his prominence as pastor of a major local church. The Republican primary advances to a May 26 runoff between Sholdon Daniels and Everett Jackson amid low GOP turnout, underscoring the challenger's uphill path in this Solid Democratic-rated seat per Cook Political Report. Realistic upset scenarios include a Democratic scandal, unprecedented Republican fundraising surge, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates for such flips in safe districts remain under 5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$3,539Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party's commanding 91.5% implied probability in the TX-30 House race reflects trader consensus on this safe Democratic Dallas-area district's entrenched partisan leanings, evidenced by past general election margins exceeding 74% for Democrats, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett's 85% win in 2024. Following Crockett's retirement to pursue a failed U.S. Senate bid, Rev. Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 primary with 74% of the vote, leveraging his prominence as pastor of a major local church. The Republican primary advances to a May 26 runoff between Sholdon Daniels and Everett Jackson amid low GOP turnout, underscoring the challenger's uphill path in this Solid Democratic-rated seat per Cook Political Report. Realistic upset scenarios include a Democratic scandal, unprecedented Republican fundraising surge, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout, though historical base rates for such flips in safe districts remain under 5%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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