Redistricting after Proposition 50 merged portions of prior districts, placing Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim in the same CA-40 race for the November 3, 2026 general election. In the June 2 top-two primary, Calvert captured roughly 35% of the vote to advance ahead of Kim at about 21%, with Democratic candidates trailing further behind. Traders assign Calvert the highest implied probability at 64%, reflecting his stronger primary performance, established name recognition across the district's Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino county areas, and broader fundraising edge in the intra-party contest. Young Kim trails at 29% amid the head-to-head dynamic, while other listed candidates and the "other" category sit near even money, consistent with the district's Republican tilt and limited path for non-top-two contenders. No major post-primary developments have shifted positioning in the intervening weeks.