Mary Peltola leads the 2026 Alaska Senate race in trader pricing after her strong performance in the August 18 open primary, where ongoing absentee ballot counts have extended her margin over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan to roughly eight points. The state’s ranked-choice voting system and top-four primary format have advanced Peltola, Sullivan, a second Republican candidate sharing Sullivan’s name, and one other contender to the November general election, with recent polls showing the Peltola-Sullivan matchup within a few points amid shifting voter preferences. Primary momentum, independent voter dynamics in the battleground state, and the potential vote-split effects from similarly named candidates have contributed to the current implied probabilities favoring Peltola while leaving room for late shifts before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAlaska Senate Election Winner
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 65%
Sen. Dan Sullivan 36%
Dustin Darden <1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. <1%
$455,535 Wol.
$455,535 Wol.
Mary Peltola
65%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
36%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
David Leslie
<1%
Mary Peltola 65%
Sen. Dan Sullivan 36%
Dustin Darden <1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. <1%
$455,535 Wol.
$455,535 Wol.
Mary Peltola
65%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
36%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
David Leslie
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola leads the 2026 Alaska Senate race in trader pricing after her strong performance in the August 18 open primary, where ongoing absentee ballot counts have extended her margin over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan to roughly eight points. The state’s ranked-choice voting system and top-four primary format have advanced Peltola, Sullivan, a second Republican candidate sharing Sullivan’s name, and one other contender to the November general election, with recent polls showing the Peltola-Sullivan matchup within a few points amid shifting voter preferences. Primary momentum, independent voter dynamics in the battleground state, and the potential vote-split effects from similarly named candidates have contributed to the current implied probabilities favoring Peltola while leaving room for late shifts before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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