Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no authorization of a US military draft in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription amid the all-volunteer force in place since 1973. Recent announcements on April 9 clarified that automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 begins in December 2026—a streamlining measure from the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump last year—but this maintains the draft-eligible pool without activating inductions, which require explicit congressional approval during a national emergency. Escalating US involvement in the Iran conflict has fueled speculation, yet no bills for draft reinstatement have advanced, with historical barriers like political opposition and recruitment sufficiency anchoring the high "No" probability; late-breaking escalations or emergencies could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$179,532 Wol.
$179,532 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$179,532 Wol.
$179,532 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no authorization of a US military draft in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription amid the all-volunteer force in place since 1973. Recent announcements on April 9 clarified that automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 begins in December 2026—a streamlining measure from the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump last year—but this maintains the draft-eligible pool without activating inductions, which require explicit congressional approval during a national emergency. Escalating US involvement in the Iran conflict has fueled speculation, yet no bills for draft reinstatement have advanced, with historical barriers like political opposition and recruitment sufficiency anchoring the high "No" probability; late-breaking escalations or emergencies could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$179,532Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no authorization of a US military draft in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription amid the all-volunteer force in place since 1973. Recent announcements on April 9 clarified that automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 begins in December 2026—a streamlining measure from the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump last year—but this maintains the draft-eligible pool without activating inductions, which require explicit congressional approval during a national emergency. Escalating US involvement in the Iran conflict has fueled speculation, yet no bills for draft reinstatement have advanced, with historical barriers like political opposition and recruitment sufficiency anchoring the high "No" probability; late-breaking escalations or emergencies could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$179,532Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no authorization of a US military draft in 2026 at 91.5%, reflecting the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription amid the all-volunteer force in place since 1973. Recent announcements on April 9 clarified that automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 begins in December 2026—a streamlining measure from the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Trump last year—but this maintains the draft-eligible pool without activating inductions, which require explicit congressional approval during a national emergency. Escalating US involvement in the Iran conflict has fueled speculation, yet no bills for draft reinstatement have advanced, with historical barriers like political opposition and recruitment sufficiency anchoring the high "No" probability; late-breaking escalations or emergencies could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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