**No congressional action has authorized conscription in 2026.** The United States has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and reinstating a draft requires Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act to empower the President to induct personnel during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18–26 starting December 2026—an administrative update to improve compliance rates, not an authorization for induction. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is in effect, and a bipartisan bill introduced in May 2026 seeks to abolish the agency entirely. While tensions with Iran prompted brief public discussion, the White House has stated there are no current plans for conscription or ground troop deployments. These structural and procedural realities underpin the 90% trader consensus against authorization this year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$340,405 Wol.
$340,405 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$340,405 Wol.
$340,405 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No congressional action has authorized conscription in 2026.** The United States has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and reinstating a draft requires Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act to empower the President to induct personnel during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18–26 starting December 2026—an administrative update to improve compliance rates, not an authorization for induction.
Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is in effect, and a bipartisan bill introduced in May 2026 seeks to abolish the agency entirely. While tensions with Iran prompted brief public discussion, the White House has stated there are no current plans for conscription or ground troop deployments. These structural and procedural realities underpin the 90% trader consensus against authorization this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$340,405Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No congressional action has authorized conscription in 2026.** The United States has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and reinstating a draft requires Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act to empower the President to induct personnel during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18–26 starting December 2026—an administrative update to improve compliance rates, not an authorization for induction.
Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is in effect, and a bipartisan bill introduced in May 2026 seeks to abolish the agency entirely. While tensions with Iran prompted brief public discussion, the White House has stated there are no current plans for conscription or ground troop deployments. These structural and procedural realities underpin the 90% trader consensus against authorization this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$340,405Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No congressional action has authorized conscription in 2026.** The United States has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and reinstating a draft requires Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act to empower the President to induct personnel during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandates automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18–26 starting December 2026—an administrative update to improve compliance rates, not an authorization for induction. Official Selective Service statements confirm no draft is in effect, and a bipartisan bill introduced in May 2026 seeks to abolish the agency entirely. While tensions with Iran prompted brief public discussion, the White House has stated there are no current plans for conscription or ground troop deployments. These structural and procedural realities underpin the 90% trader consensus against authorization this year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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