Skip to main content
Market icon
Geopolityka·Zawieszenie Broni W Iranie

USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?

Market icon
Geopolityka·Zawieszenie Broni W Iranie

USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?

$1,364,505 Wol.

Apr 21, 2026
Polymarket

$1,364,505 Wol.

Polymarket

18 kwietnia

$82,089 Wol.

7%

21 kwietnia

$776,730 Wol.

80%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies an 81% probability for the US-Iran ceasefire extending to April 21, reflecting recent de-escalation signals like Iran's foreign minister confirming the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial shipping through the truce period, echoed by President Trump hours ago, and Pakistan mediators reporting an in-principle agreement to prolong the two-week halt in hostilities beyond April 22 for further talks. Suspension of US strikes since early April has held amid Islamabad negotiations, though 21-hour sessions ended without a full deal and White House officials denied formal extension requests. Unresolved nuclear restraint and regional attacks pose risks, with the original deadline nearing as a pivotal catalyst.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.

A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Wolumen
$1,364,505
Data zakończenia
Apr 21, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 15, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies an 81% probability for the US-Iran ceasefire extending to April 21, reflecting recent de-escalation signals like Iran's foreign minister confirming the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial shipping through the truce period, echoed by President Trump hours ago, and Pakistan mediators reporting an in-principle agreement to prolong the two-week halt in hostilities beyond April 22 for further talks. Suspension of US strikes since early April has held amid Islamabad negotiations, though 21-hour sessions ended without a full deal and White House officials denied formal extension requests. Unresolved nuclear restraint and regional attacks pose risks, with the original deadline nearing as a pivotal catalyst.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.

A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Wolumen
$1,364,505
Data zakończenia
Apr 21, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 15, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.

Często zadawane pytania

"USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 3 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "21 kwietnia" z 80%, za nim "18 kwietnia" z 7%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 80¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 80% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?" wygenerował $1.4 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 8, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?", przeglądaj 3 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?" jest "21 kwietnia" z 80%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 80% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "18 kwietnia" z 7%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "USA x Iran zawieszenie broni przedłużone o...?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.