Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former officials and activists facing congressional oversight, intelligence probes, or immigration enforcement actions through late 2026. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability amid scrutiny of prior intelligence activities, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony and repeated Fifth Amendment invocations have drawn attention to potential contempt or related proceedings. Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court matters reflect focus on protest-related cases. Broader factors include DOJ investigations into state officials and enforcement patterns against networks disrupting federal operations. Scheduled hearings, appeals, and agency actions through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$410,572 Wol.
Anthony Fauci
9%
John Brennan
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
11%
Adam Schiff
2%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
9%
Mahmoud Khalil
21%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
10%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
7%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
5%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
11%
Lisa Cook
4%
Lee Jun-seok
12%
Joe Biden
1%
$410,572 Wol.
Anthony Fauci
$164,421 Wol.
9%
John Brennan
$22,244 Wol.
21%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,220 Wol.
11%
Adam Schiff
$16,570 Wol.
2%
Barack Obama
$29,276 Wol.
2%
James Comey
$10,293 Wol.
9%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,328 Wol.
21%
James Clapper
$6,774 Wol.
12%
Letitia James
$3,047 Wol.
10%
Hillary Clinton
$26,162 Wol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,726 Wol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Wol.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 Wol.
7%
Candace Owens
$268 Wol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,406 Wol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,936 Wol.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Wol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 Wol.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,331 Wol.
5%
Kash Patel
$598 Wol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,284 Wol.
11%
Lisa Cook
$4,005 Wol.
4%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Wol.
12%
Joe Biden
$7,481 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former officials and activists facing congressional oversight, intelligence probes, or immigration enforcement actions through late 2026. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability amid scrutiny of prior intelligence activities, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony and repeated Fifth Amendment invocations have drawn attention to potential contempt or related proceedings. Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court matters reflect focus on protest-related cases. Broader factors include DOJ investigations into state officials and enforcement patterns against networks disrupting federal operations. Scheduled hearings, appeals, and agency actions through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$410,572Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former officials and activists facing congressional oversight, intelligence probes, or immigration enforcement actions through late 2026. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability amid scrutiny of prior intelligence activities, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony and repeated Fifth Amendment invocations have drawn attention to potential contempt or related proceedings. Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court matters reflect focus on protest-related cases. Broader factors include DOJ investigations into state officials and enforcement patterns against networks disrupting federal operations. Scheduled hearings, appeals, and agency actions through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$410,572Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on former officials and activists facing congressional oversight, intelligence probes, or immigration enforcement actions through late 2026. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability amid scrutiny of prior intelligence activities, while Anthony Fauci's recent Senate testimony and repeated Fifth Amendment invocations have drawn attention to potential contempt or related proceedings. Mahmoud Khalil's prior ICE detention and ongoing court matters reflect focus on protest-related cases. Broader factors include DOJ investigations into state officials and enforcement patterns against networks disrupting federal operations. Scheduled hearings, appeals, and agency actions through year-end remain key variables that could shift probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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