South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, elected in June 2025 following the prior administration's turmoil, benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings, including election-law and other cases, during his term through 2030. Courts have repeatedly postponed or indefinitely deferred trials on these matters, citing presidential protections, with the most recent updates in July 2026 confirming no active prosecutorial push. No major indictments, legislative overrides of immunity, or court rulings have emerged in 2026 to alter this status. Traders price the 92.1% probability of no arrest before 2027 around these institutional barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of overriding them within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8% szansa
$538,606 Wol.
$538,606 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% szansa
$538,606 Wol.
$538,606 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, elected in June 2025 following the prior administration's turmoil, benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings, including election-law and other cases, during his term through 2030. Courts have repeatedly postponed or indefinitely deferred trials on these matters, citing presidential protections, with the most recent updates in July 2026 confirming no active prosecutorial push. No major indictments, legislative overrides of immunity, or court rulings have emerged in 2026 to alter this status. Traders price the 92.1% probability of no arrest before 2027 around these institutional barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of overriding them within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$538,606Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, elected in June 2025 following the prior administration's turmoil, benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings, including election-law and other cases, during his term through 2030. Courts have repeatedly postponed or indefinitely deferred trials on these matters, citing presidential protections, with the most recent updates in July 2026 confirming no active prosecutorial push. No major indictments, legislative overrides of immunity, or court rulings have emerged in 2026 to alter this status. Traders price the 92.1% probability of no arrest before 2027 around these institutional barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of overriding them within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$538,606Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, elected in June 2025 following the prior administration's turmoil, benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings, including election-law and other cases, during his term through 2030. Courts have repeatedly postponed or indefinitely deferred trials on these matters, citing presidential protections, with the most recent updates in July 2026 confirming no active prosecutorial push. No major indictments, legislative overrides of immunity, or court rulings have emerged in 2026 to alter this status. Traders price the 92.1% probability of no arrest before 2027 around these institutional barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of overriding them within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania