Despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and ensuing protests fueled by economic collapse, Iran's regime has demonstrated resilience, suppressing dissent through executions and security crackdowns without signs of military defections or institutional breakdown. U.S. intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirmed the leadership remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse, a view reinforced by April analyses noting the regime's entrenched repressive apparatus amid ongoing war. Traders' 93.5% consensus on "No" reflects this stability, with no major catalysts like mass uprisings or elite fractures emerging in the past 30 days to shift odds before the June 30 deadline, though external pressures or internal shocks could still alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoReżim irański upadnie do 30 czerwca?
Reżim irański upadnie do 30 czerwca?
Tak
$31,555,306 Wol.
$31,555,306 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Tak
$31,555,306 Wol.
$31,555,306 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and ensuing protests fueled by economic collapse, Iran's regime has demonstrated resilience, suppressing dissent through executions and security crackdowns without signs of military defections or institutional breakdown. U.S. intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirmed the leadership remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse, a view reinforced by April analyses noting the regime's entrenched repressive apparatus amid ongoing war. Traders' 93.5% consensus on "No" reflects this stability, with no major catalysts like mass uprisings or elite fractures emerging in the past 30 days to shift odds before the June 30 deadline, though external pressures or internal shocks could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$31,555,306Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and ensuing protests fueled by economic collapse, Iran's regime has demonstrated resilience, suppressing dissent through executions and security crackdowns without signs of military defections or institutional breakdown. U.S. intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirmed the leadership remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse, a view reinforced by April analyses noting the regime's entrenched repressive apparatus amid ongoing war. Traders' 93.5% consensus on "No" reflects this stability, with no major catalysts like mass uprisings or elite fractures emerging in the past 30 days to shift odds before the June 30 deadline, though external pressures or internal shocks could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$31,557,306Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and ensuing protests fueled by economic collapse, Iran's regime has demonstrated resilience, suppressing dissent through executions and security crackdowns without signs of military defections or institutional breakdown. U.S. intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirmed the leadership remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse, a view reinforced by April analyses noting the regime's entrenched repressive apparatus amid ongoing war. Traders' 93.5% consensus on "No" reflects this stability, with no major catalysts like mass uprisings or elite fractures emerging in the past 30 days to shift odds before the June 30 deadline, though external pressures or internal shocks could still alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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