Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Czy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Tak
$54,777,509 Wol.
$54,777,509 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$54,777,509 Wol.
$54,777,509 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$54,777,509Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Wolumen
$54,777,509Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval pressures around the Strait of Hormuz rather than ground operations. Recent developments include President Trump's cancellation of planned strikes in early August amid mediator-backed frameworks for reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program, alongside continued but limited U.S. retaliatory actions. Analysts highlight logistical barriers to any full-scale invasion of Iran's terrain and note U.S. preference for air and sea power, with no mobilization of conventional ground forces. Trader consensus at 79.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects these patterns of targeted strikes, diplomatic maneuvering, and absence of escalation signals toward occupation within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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