Persistent lack of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since the 1979 embassy seizure, compounded by the 2026 conflict, collapsed June memorandum of understanding, and shift to US economic pressure without active negotiations, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening an embassy in 2026. Recent developments, including phased US diplomat returns to other regional posts amid restricted operations and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief and trust-building, reinforce this positioning. The Swiss protecting power continues handling US interests in Tehran with no indication of normalization. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen comprehensive nuclear accord, verified de-escalation, or major policy reversal before year-end, though current evidence points to sustained barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5% szansa
$158,410 Wol.
$158,410 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$158,410 Wol.
$158,410 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent lack of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since the 1979 embassy seizure, compounded by the 2026 conflict, collapsed June memorandum of understanding, and shift to US economic pressure without active negotiations, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening an embassy in 2026. Recent developments, including phased US diplomat returns to other regional posts amid restricted operations and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief and trust-building, reinforce this positioning. The Swiss protecting power continues handling US interests in Tehran with no indication of normalization. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen comprehensive nuclear accord, verified de-escalation, or major policy reversal before year-end, though current evidence points to sustained barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$158,410Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent lack of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since the 1979 embassy seizure, compounded by the 2026 conflict, collapsed June memorandum of understanding, and shift to US economic pressure without active negotiations, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening an embassy in 2026. Recent developments, including phased US diplomat returns to other regional posts amid restricted operations and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief and trust-building, reinforce this positioning. The Swiss protecting power continues handling US interests in Tehran with no indication of normalization. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen comprehensive nuclear accord, verified de-escalation, or major policy reversal before year-end, though current evidence points to sustained barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$158,410Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Persistent lack of formal US-Iran diplomatic relations since the 1979 embassy seizure, compounded by the 2026 conflict, collapsed June memorandum of understanding, and shift to US economic pressure without active negotiations, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening an embassy in 2026. Recent developments, including phased US diplomat returns to other regional posts amid restricted operations and Iranian insistence on sanctions relief and trust-building, reinforce this positioning. The Swiss protecting power continues handling US interests in Tehran with no indication of normalization. Late shifts remain possible only through an unforeseen comprehensive nuclear accord, verified de-escalation, or major policy reversal before year-end, though current evidence points to sustained barriers.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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