The Alagoas gubernatorial race remains tightly contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with traders pricing JHC, Renan Filho, Márcio Jambo, and Lenilda Luna in a narrow band near 40-45% implied probability. Recent July polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas shows JHC and Renan Filho statistically tied in both stimulated and second-round scenarios, reflecting strong name recognition for the former Maceió mayor and the MDB-aligned ex-governor amid a four-candidate field. Campaign agendas launched in mid-August emphasize public security and state infrastructure, yet no single contender has consolidated broader coalitions or shifted voter preferences decisively. The presence of additional viable options and typical Northeast Brazilian electoral fragmentation sustain the current balance, with separation likely to emerge from coalition formalizations, targeted regional outreach, or subsequent polling releases before the October vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJHC 42%
Márcio Jambo 42%
Renan Filho 41%
Lenilda Luna 20%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
JHC
42%
Márcio Jambo
42%
Renan Filho
41%
Lenilda Luna
24%
JHC 42%
Márcio Jambo 42%
Renan Filho 41%
Lenilda Luna 20%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
JHC
$0 Vol.
42%
Márcio Jambo
$0 Vol.
42%
Renan Filho
$0 Vol.
41%
Lenilda Luna
$20 Vol.
24%
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas gubernatorial race remains tightly contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with traders pricing JHC, Renan Filho, Márcio Jambo, and Lenilda Luna in a narrow band near 40-45% implied probability. Recent July polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas shows JHC and Renan Filho statistically tied in both stimulated and second-round scenarios, reflecting strong name recognition for the former Maceió mayor and the MDB-aligned ex-governor amid a four-candidate field. Campaign agendas launched in mid-August emphasize public security and state infrastructure, yet no single contender has consolidated broader coalitions or shifted voter preferences decisively. The presence of additional viable options and typical Northeast Brazilian electoral fragmentation sustain the current balance, with separation likely to emerge from coalition formalizations, targeted regional outreach, or subsequent polling releases before the October vote.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET
Volume
$20Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas gubernatorial race remains tightly contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with traders pricing JHC, Renan Filho, Márcio Jambo, and Lenilda Luna in a narrow band near 40-45% implied probability. Recent July polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas shows JHC and Renan Filho statistically tied in both stimulated and second-round scenarios, reflecting strong name recognition for the former Maceió mayor and the MDB-aligned ex-governor amid a four-candidate field. Campaign agendas launched in mid-August emphasize public security and state infrastructure, yet no single contender has consolidated broader coalitions or shifted voter preferences decisively. The presence of additional viable options and typical Northeast Brazilian electoral fragmentation sustain the current balance, with separation likely to emerge from coalition formalizations, targeted regional outreach, or subsequent polling releases before the October vote.
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas gubernatorial race remains tightly contested ahead of the October 2026 first round, with traders pricing JHC, Renan Filho, Márcio Jambo, and Lenilda Luna in a narrow band near 40-45% implied probability. Recent July polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas shows JHC and Renan Filho statistically tied in both stimulated and second-round scenarios, reflecting strong name recognition for the former Maceió mayor and the MDB-aligned ex-governor amid a four-candidate field. Campaign agendas launched in mid-August emphasize public security and state infrastructure, yet no single contender has consolidated broader coalitions or shifted voter preferences decisively. The presence of additional viable options and typical Northeast Brazilian electoral fragmentation sustain the current balance, with separation likely to emerge from coalition formalizations, targeted regional outreach, or subsequent polling releases before the October vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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