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Política·Brasil

Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil

icon for Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil
Política·Brasil

Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil

Lula 87%

Flavio Bolsonaro 9%

Escritor Augusto Cury 2.1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Lula 87%

Flavio Bolsonaro 9%

Escritor Augusto Cury 2.1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$2,814 Vol.

87%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$1,139 Vol.

9%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$490 Vol.

2%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$316 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$366 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$486 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$366 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in first-round polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, placing him well ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent late-August surveys from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and others show Lula in the high 30s to low 40s while Bolsonaro registers in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other names in single digits or lower. The campaign’s formal start, initial debates, and free electoral broadcasts have not altered this ordering. Trader consensus on Lula as first-round leader reflects these persistent polling gaps and the structural advantage of incumbency, while low probabilities for alternatives align with their limited national support and the two-candidate dynamic that continues to dominate voter intentions.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,909
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in first-round polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, placing him well ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field that includes Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Recent late-August surveys from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and others show Lula in the high 30s to low 40s while Bolsonaro registers in the low-to-mid 30s, with all other names in single digits or lower. The campaign’s formal start, initial debates, and free electoral broadcasts have not altered this ordering. Trader consensus on Lula as first-round leader reflects these persistent polling gaps and the structural advantage of incumbency, while low probabilities for alternatives align with their limited national support and the two-candidate dynamic that continues to dominate voter intentions.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,909
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Fonte de resolução

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 87%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" is "Lula" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.