Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCid Gomes 42%
Capitão Wagner 41%
Luizianne 41%
Alcides Fernandes 41%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Cid Gomes
42%
Capitão Wagner
41%
Luizianne
41%
Alcides Fernandes
41%
Guilherme Theophilo
41%
Catarina Matos
39%
Lino Alves
39%
Reginaldo
39%
Cid Gomes 42%
Capitão Wagner 41%
Luizianne 41%
Alcides Fernandes 41%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Cid Gomes
$0 Vol.
42%
Capitão Wagner
$0 Vol.
41%
Luizianne
$0 Vol.
41%
Alcides Fernandes
$0 Vol.
41%
Guilherme Theophilo
$0 Vol.
41%
Catarina Matos
$0 Vol.
39%
Lino Alves
$0 Vol.
39%
Reginaldo
$0 Vol.
39%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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