DeepSeek's official release of the V4 preview large language model on April 24, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," as the open-source weights for DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters via mixture-of-experts architecture, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active) went live on Hugging Face alongside a detailed technical report touting 1M-token context length and frontier-level benchmarks in coding and math. This follows months of delays tied to Huawei Ascend chip optimization, validating prior leaks and positioning DeepSeek competitively against closed models like Gemini 3.1 Pro. Resolution risks remain minimal barring disputes over "preview" status, with full V4 potentially imminent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDeepSeek V4 lançado em...?
DeepSeek V4 lançado em...?
On or prior to April 24 100.0%
April 25 <1%
April 26 <1%
April 27 <1%
$44,086 Vol.
$44,086 Vol.
15 mai 2026
On or prior to April 24
Yes
April 25
No
April 26
No
April 27
No
April 28
No
April 29
No
April 30
No
May 1
No
May 2
No
May 3
No
May 4
No
May 5
No
May 6
No
May 7
No
May 8
No
May 9
No
May 10
No
May 11
No
May 12
No
May 13
No
May 14
No
May 15
No
Not released by May 15
No
On or prior to April 24 100.0%
April 25 <1%
April 26 <1%
April 27 <1%
$44,086 Vol.
$44,086 Vol.
15 mai 2026
On or prior to April 24
$21,937 Vol.
Yes
April 25
$243 Vol.
No
April 26
$200 Vol.
No
April 27
$242 Vol.
No
April 28
$619 Vol.
No
April 29
$535 Vol.
No
April 30
$624 Vol.
No
May 1
$807 Vol.
No
May 2
$633 Vol.
No
May 3
$654 Vol.
No
May 4
$653 Vol.
No
May 5
$672 Vol.
No
May 6
$1,131 Vol.
No
May 7
$708 Vol.
No
May 8
$650 Vol.
No
May 9
$435 Vol.
No
May 10
$679 Vol.
No
May 11
$535 Vol.
No
May 12
$451 Vol.
No
May 13
$450 Vol.
No
May 14
$450 Vol.
No
May 15
$401 Vol.
No
Not released by May 15
$10,377 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of the V4 preview large language model on April 24, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," as the open-source weights for DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters via mixture-of-experts architecture, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active) went live on Hugging Face alongside a detailed technical report touting 1M-token context length and frontier-level benchmarks in coding and math. This follows months of delays tied to Huawei Ascend chip optimization, validating prior leaks and positioning DeepSeek competitively against closed models like Gemini 3.1 Pro. Resolution risks remain minimal barring disputes over "preview" status, with full V4 potentially imminent.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$44,086Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of the V4 preview large language model on April 24, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," as the open-source weights for DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters via mixture-of-experts architecture, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active) went live on Hugging Face alongside a detailed technical report touting 1M-token context length and frontier-level benchmarks in coding and math. This follows months of delays tied to Huawei Ascend chip optimization, validating prior leaks and positioning DeepSeek competitively against closed models like Gemini 3.1 Pro. Resolution risks remain minimal barring disputes over "preview" status, with full V4 potentially imminent.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,086Data de Término
15 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
DeepSeek's official release of the V4 preview large language model on April 24, 2026, has driven trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for "on or prior to April 24," as the open-source weights for DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters via mixture-of-experts architecture, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active) went live on Hugging Face alongside a detailed technical report touting 1M-token context length and frontier-level benchmarks in coding and math. This follows months of delays tied to Huawei Ascend chip optimization, validating prior leaks and positioning DeepSeek competitively against closed models like Gemini 3.1 Pro. Resolution risks remain minimal barring disputes over "preview" status, with full V4 potentially imminent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions