**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability. Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Amesterdão a 11 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Amesterdão a 11 de julho?
25°C 100.0%
22°C ou menos <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$86,606 Vol.
$86,606 Vol.
11 jul 2026
22°C ou menos
Não
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Sim
26°C
Não
27°C
Não
28°C
Não
29°C
Não
30°C
Não
31°C
Não
32°C ou mais
Não
25°C 100.0%
22°C ou menos <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$86,606 Vol.
$86,606 Vol.
11 jul 2026
22°C ou menos
$5,414 Vol.
Não
23°C
$16,461 Vol.
Não
24°C
$15,372 Vol.
Não
25°C
$13,489 Vol.
Sim
26°C
$11,947 Vol.
Não
27°C
$7,639 Vol.
Não
28°C
$6,288 Vol.
Não
29°C
$3,885 Vol.
Não
30°C
$3,326 Vol.
Não
31°C
$926 Vol.
Não
32°C ou mais
$1,858 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability.
Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$86,606Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability.
Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$86,606Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
**Current short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF ensembles position 26–28°C as the most probable range for Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on July 11, 2026, two days ahead.** Model consensus shows a warm anomaly across northern Europe with southerly flow and clear or partly cloudy conditions allowing daytime heating, but without the strong subsidence or Spanish plume setup needed for 30°C-plus readings. This explains the market’s heavy clustering on 27°C (35.5%), 28°C (24.5%), and 26°C (21.5%), which together capture over 80% of implied probability. Recent model updates have tightened around these values, with limited spread in the ensembles and no major shifts in steering patterns or cloud cover forecasts that would favor cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Historical July averages near 22–24°C provide context, yet the current pattern supports a modest positive anomaly consistent with the leading bins. Traders are monitoring the next KNMI and ECMWF runs, plus any afternoon observations on July 10, for refinements before resolution at noon local time on July 11.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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