Recent KMA and global model guidance for coastal Busan on 21 August point to a maritime air mass under weak high pressure with scattered showers, producing forecast maximums of 29–31 °C and limiting afternoon heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clustering at 32–33 °C (67.5 % combined) reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any late-day clearing that could allow an extra degree or two of warming, while lower probabilities for 34 °C+ capture the low likelihood of strong subsidence or offshore flow overriding the marine influence. Historical August climatology shows Busan maxima averaging near 30 °C, so the narrow spread between 32 °C and 33 °C hinges on small differences in boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze strength rather than major synoptic shifts. Updated model runs and KMA briefings through 20 August remain the key near-term catalysts.