Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 19?
27°C 39%
28°C 36%
26°C 22%
25°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
10%
25°C
15%
26°C
22%
27°C
23%
28°C
21%
29°C
11%
30°C
10%
31°C
9%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 39%
28°C 36%
26°C 22%
25°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
22°C or below
$175 Vol.
2%
23°C
$230 Vol.
9%
24°C
$210 Vol.
10%
25°C
$10 Vol.
15%
26°C
$10 Vol.
22%
27°C
$10 Vol.
23%
28°C
$10 Vol.
21%
29°C
$10 Vol.
11%
30°C
$10 Vol.
10%
31°C
$10 Vol.
9%
32°C or higher
$90 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
Volume
$195Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$195Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 19, with closely matched implied probabilities for ≤22°C (52%) versus ≥32°C (50.5%), driven by ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF outputs ranging from 22-32°C. Recent 24-48 hour forecast updates, including timeanddate.com guidance as of April 16, project a cooldown to around 24°C amid overcast skies, passing showers (47% probability), and southerly winds boosting humidity to 66%, following 28-29°C highs on April 17-18 under ridging. Differentiating factors include potential frontal timing—early arrival caps highs below average April norms (~22°C) via cloud-induced cooling, while delayed moisture allows basin heat trapping and solar heating to push extremes; China Meteorological Administration updates and 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours may resolve this.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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