Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate partly cloudy conditions with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible for Chengdu on August 25, supporting highs near 34–35°C amid typical late-summer humidity and light winds. Recent post-Chushu solar term shifts have increased convective instability, with localized rain and cloud cover acting as the main cooling mechanisms that could prevent peaks from reaching 36°C or higher. Differentiation among close market outcomes hinges on storm timing and coverage: more widespread convection would suppress maxima toward 34–35°C, while delayed or isolated activity allows brief radiative heating to push readings higher. This aligns with historical August variability in the Sichuan basin, where official observations show occasional spikes above the 32°C seasonal average when subsidence dominates. Updated model runs and local radar data ahead of the date remain key variables for traders.