Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 29.5% probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 66-67°F on April 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble outputs clustering around the mid-60s amid an unsettled pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting from recent heavy rainfall events. This positioning reflects moderation from Lake Michigan's boundary layer effects and variable cloud cover limiting solar heating, with historical April 18 normals at 60°F providing context for the above-average but capped outlook. Key variables include diurnal clearing timing, easterly winds enhancing lake breeze cooling for lower outcomes like 62-65°F (combined ~30%), or prolonged sunshine pushing toward 68-69°F (18%) or 72°F+ (8.6%); new 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected later today could refine these amid ongoing flood watches through April 18.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 25%
64-65°F 13%
72°F or higher 11.9%
NOVO
NOVO
18 abr 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
7%
72°F or higher
12%
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 25%
64-65°F 13%
72°F or higher 11.9%
NOVO
NOVO
18 abr 2026
53°F or below
$2,431 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$624 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$508 Vol.
3%
58-59°F
$469 Vol.
4%
60-61°F
$331 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$623 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$191 Vol.
13%
66-67°F
$218 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$237 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$849 Vol.
7%
72°F or higher
$1,643 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 29.5% probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 66-67°F on April 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble outputs clustering around the mid-60s amid an unsettled pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting from recent heavy rainfall events. This positioning reflects moderation from Lake Michigan's boundary layer effects and variable cloud cover limiting solar heating, with historical April 18 normals at 60°F providing context for the above-average but capped outlook. Key variables include diurnal clearing timing, easterly winds enhancing lake breeze cooling for lower outcomes like 62-65°F (combined ~30%), or prolonged sunshine pushing toward 68-69°F (18%) or 72°F+ (8.6%); new 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected later today could refine these amid ongoing flood watches through April 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$8,076Data de Término
18 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 29.5% probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 66-67°F on April 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble outputs clustering around the mid-60s amid an unsettled pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting from recent heavy rainfall events. This positioning reflects moderation from Lake Michigan's boundary layer effects and variable cloud cover limiting solar heating, with historical April 18 normals at 60°F providing context for the above-average but capped outlook. Key variables include diurnal clearing timing, easterly winds enhancing lake breeze cooling for lower outcomes like 62-65°F (combined ~30%), or prolonged sunshine pushing toward 68-69°F (18%) or 72°F+ (8.6%); new 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected later today could refine these amid ongoing flood watches through April 18.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,076Data de Término
18 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 29.5% probability for Chicago's highest temperature at O'Hare reaching 66-67°F on April 18, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble outputs clustering around the mid-60s amid an unsettled pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting from recent heavy rainfall events. This positioning reflects moderation from Lake Michigan's boundary layer effects and variable cloud cover limiting solar heating, with historical April 18 normals at 60°F providing context for the above-average but capped outlook. Key variables include diurnal clearing timing, easterly winds enhancing lake breeze cooling for lower outcomes like 62-65°F (combined ~30%), or prolonged sunshine pushing toward 68-69°F (18%) or 72°F+ (8.6%); new 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected later today could refine these amid ongoing flood watches through April 18.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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