Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 11 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 11 de julho?
82-83°F 100.0%
77°F ou menos <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$39,096 Vol.
$39,096 Vol.
11 jul 2026
77°F ou menos
Não
78-79°F
Não
80-81°F
Não
82-83°F
Sim
84-85°F
Não
30-31°C
Não
88-89°F
Não
32-32,7°C
Não
92-93°F
Não
94-95°F
Não
96°F ou mais
Não
82-83°F 100.0%
77°F ou menos <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$39,096 Vol.
$39,096 Vol.
11 jul 2026
77°F ou menos
$1,160 Vol.
Não
78-79°F
$1,849 Vol.
Não
80-81°F
$20,252 Vol.
Não
82-83°F
$3,875 Vol.
Sim
84-85°F
$4,214 Vol.
Não
30-31°C
$2,823 Vol.
Não
88-89°F
$1,607 Vol.
Não
32-32,7°C
$1,140 Vol.
Não
92-93°F
$811 Vol.
Não
94-95°F
$785 Vol.
Não
96°F ou mais
$580 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$39,096Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,096Data de Término
11 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Forecast guidance from National Weather Service and numerical models currently anchors trader consensus on an 84-85°F high for Chicago on July 11, near the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 84.8°F, with the market spreading probability across adjacent bins due to typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and lake-breeze timing. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and dew-point advection that modulate surface heating, wind direction shifts that either reinforce or weaken the urban heat island, and any late-day convective development capable of trimming peak readings by a degree or two. Recent model runs show modest spread between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, keeping the 82-87°F range collectively above 70% implied probability while limiting tail risk for 90°F+ outcomes. Updated NWS point forecasts and afternoon model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the next resolution-relevant data points before the official daily maximum is recorded at O’Hare.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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