Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Dallas highs of 78-83°F on March 23, with means clustering around 80°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering warm, sunny conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer at 81-83°F versus ECMWF's 78-80°F—exacerbated by uncertainties in morning cloud cover and southerly wind timing, which could shave 2-3°F off peaks. Above-normal temps align with historical March anomalies, but tight hourly observations at DFW Airport will resolve bins, as diurnal ranges amplify small variances in boundary layer mixing. Market-implied odds reflect this forecast convergence, pricing low risk below 77°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
84°F or higher 28%
82-83°F 21%
78-79°F 20%
80-81°F 20%
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
21%
84°F or higher
28%
84°F or higher 28%
82-83°F 21%
78-79°F 20%
80-81°F 20%
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
21%
84°F or higher
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Dallas highs of 78-83°F on March 23, with means clustering around 80°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas fostering warm, sunny conditions. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS runs slightly warmer at 81-83°F versus ECMWF's 78-80°F—exacerbated by uncertainties in morning cloud cover and southerly wind timing, which could shave 2-3°F off peaks. Above-normal temps align with historical March anomalies, but tight hourly observations at DFW Airport will resolve bins, as diurnal ranges amplify small variances in boundary layer mixing. Market-implied odds reflect this forecast convergence, pricing low risk below 77°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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