Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Tel Aviv high of 19-21°C on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 20°C amid a building upper-level ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Israel's Meteorological Service aligns with this, projecting partly cloudy skies and highs of 20-22°C following a recent mild air mass advection. Differentiating the close 19°C (25%) and 20°C (27.5%) leads are uncertainties in coastal sea breeze penetration, which could suppress peaks by 1-2°C via enhanced low-level mixing, versus 21°C (20.5%) if diel heating outpaces cloud development—historical March norms of 19.5°C underscore this narrow spread, with 24°C+ odds fading on weak subtropical influence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 28%
19°C 23%
21°C 21%
18°C 19%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
8%
17°C
3%
18°C
13%
19°C
25%
20°C
28%
21°C
21%
22°C
8%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
17%
20°C 28%
19°C 23%
21°C 21%
18°C 19%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
8%
17°C
3%
18°C
13%
19°C
25%
20°C
28%
21°C
21%
22°C
8%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Tel Aviv high of 19-21°C on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 20°C amid a building upper-level ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Israel's Meteorological Service aligns with this, projecting partly cloudy skies and highs of 20-22°C following a recent mild air mass advection. Differentiating the close 19°C (25%) and 20°C (27.5%) leads are uncertainties in coastal sea breeze penetration, which could suppress peaks by 1-2°C via enhanced low-level mixing, versus 21°C (20.5%) if diel heating outpaces cloud development—historical March norms of 19.5°C underscore this narrow spread, with 24°C+ odds fading on weak subtropical influence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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