Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 21 high temperature reveals extreme uncertainty, with every outcome from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher implying equal 25% odds across the evenly split field, signaling no dominant forecast consensus. Seasonal climatology drives this balance: historical China Meteorological Administration data shows average March highs of 15-18°C in Wuhan, but spring variability amplifies risks from Siberian cold fronts pushing lows toward 12°C or polar highs from southerly monsoon precursors exceeding 21°C. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs diverge widely—spreads of 8-10°C—due to jet stream waviness and El Niño decay effects, with 00Z updates tomorrow likely to catalyze shifts as resolution nears. Traders eye exact integer thresholds against verified station measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 21?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 21?
12°C or below 25%
13°C 25%
14°C 25%
15°C 25%
12°C or below
25%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
25%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
25%
12°C or below 25%
13°C 25%
14°C 25%
15°C 25%
12°C or below
25%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
25%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's March 21 high temperature reveals extreme uncertainty, with every outcome from 12°C or below to 22°C or higher implying equal 25% odds across the evenly split field, signaling no dominant forecast consensus. Seasonal climatology drives this balance: historical China Meteorological Administration data shows average March highs of 15-18°C in Wuhan, but spring variability amplifies risks from Siberian cold fronts pushing lows toward 12°C or polar highs from southerly monsoon precursors exceeding 21°C. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs diverge widely—spreads of 8-10°C—due to jet stream waviness and El Niño decay effects, with 00Z updates tomorrow likely to catalyze shifts as resolution nears. Traders eye exact integer thresholds against verified station measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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