Trader sentiment for Beijing's March 22 high temperature is fragmented across outcomes, with 21°C slightly leading at 26% amid model ensemble spreads of 5-7°C that highlight uncertainty in cold frontal timing. ECMWF leans cooler (16-19°C) due to persistent Siberian air advection and mid-level troughing, while GFS favors warmer peaks (21-25°C) from emerging southerly flow and diurnal solar heating under partly cloudy skies. Recent 00Z runs shifted odds evenly as jet stream ridging wavers, differentiating warmer bets on urban heat island amplification at official stations from cooler ones tied to potential overcast persistence. Historical March 22 averages hover near 13°C, but interannual variability underscores the tight market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 22?
21°C 26%
16°C or below 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
16°C or below
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C or higher
26%
21°C 26%
16°C or below 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
16°C or below
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Beijing's March 22 high temperature is fragmented across outcomes, with 21°C slightly leading at 26% amid model ensemble spreads of 5-7°C that highlight uncertainty in cold frontal timing. ECMWF leans cooler (16-19°C) due to persistent Siberian air advection and mid-level troughing, while GFS favors warmer peaks (21-25°C) from emerging southerly flow and diurnal solar heating under partly cloudy skies. Recent 00Z runs shifted odds evenly as jet stream ridging wavers, differentiating warmer bets on urban heat island amplification at official stations from cooler ones tied to potential overcast persistence. Historical March 22 averages hover near 13°C, but interannual variability underscores the tight market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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