Trader uncertainty drives the even 25% implied probabilities across Chongqing's March 21 high temperature outcomes, stemming from divergent short-range forecasts amid variable spring weather patterns. China Meteorological Administration models and ECMWF ensembles project a central tendency around 16-18°C, but spreads of ±3-5°C reflect potential influences like basin-induced temperature inversions, lingering cold air from northern fronts, or downslope warming from surrounding mountains. Historical March 21 highs in Chongqing average 17°C with a standard deviation of 4°C, amplifying model disagreements; recent observations show diurnal highs climbing from 14°C earlier this week under partly cloudy skies. Key differentiator: cloud cover evolution, with clearer conditions favoring 18-20°C and overcast skies tilting toward 12-16°C, pending tomorrow's updated guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chongqing em 21 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chongqing em 21 de março?
11°C ou menos 25%
12°C 25%
13°C 25%
14°C 25%
11°C ou menos
25%
12°C
25%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
25%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C ou mais
25%
11°C ou menos 25%
12°C 25%
13°C 25%
14°C 25%
11°C ou menos
25%
12°C
25%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
25%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C ou mais
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader uncertainty drives the even 25% implied probabilities across Chongqing's March 21 high temperature outcomes, stemming from divergent short-range forecasts amid variable spring weather patterns. China Meteorological Administration models and ECMWF ensembles project a central tendency around 16-18°C, but spreads of ±3-5°C reflect potential influences like basin-induced temperature inversions, lingering cold air from northern fronts, or downslope warming from surrounding mountains. Historical March 21 highs in Chongqing average 17°C with a standard deviation of 4°C, amplifying model disagreements; recent observations show diurnal highs climbing from 14°C earlier this week under partly cloudy skies. Key differentiator: cloud cover evolution, with clearer conditions favoring 18-20°C and overcast skies tilting toward 12-16°C, pending tomorrow's updated guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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