Recent ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high near 19-20°C in Chengdu on March 24, driving the slight edge for 21°C or higher at 26% implied probability amid tight trader consensus across bins. Chengdu's Sichuan Basin location fosters stable spring conditions with average March highs around 17°C, but current upper-level ridging and southerly flow introduce warm anomalies, boosting upside risk. Model spread reflects uncertainty from potential cloud cover and afternoon convection, historically capping peaks by 1-2°C; traders weigh this against verified hourly data releases from China Meteorological Administration for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 24?
21°C or higher 26%
11°C ou menos 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
11°C ou menos
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
21°C or higher 26%
11°C ou menos 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
11°C ou menos
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high near 19-20°C in Chengdu on March 24, driving the slight edge for 21°C or higher at 26% implied probability amid tight trader consensus across bins. Chengdu's Sichuan Basin location fosters stable spring conditions with average March highs around 17°C, but current upper-level ridging and southerly flow introduce warm anomalies, boosting upside risk. Model spread reflects uncertainty from potential cloud cover and afternoon convection, historically capping peaks by 1-2°C; traders weigh this against verified hourly data releases from China Meteorological Administration for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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