Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with 28°C slightly leading at 26% amid near-equal 25.5% odds across cooler (20-27°C) and warmer (29°C+) buckets, driven by diverging global weather models. ECMWF ensembles project a high-pressure ridge fostering highs near 27-29°C via subsidence warming, while GFS and Chinese CMA models anticipate a weakening cold front capping peaks at 22-25°C with sea breeze moderation. Historical March data from Shenzhen observatory averages 24°C highs, amplified by urban heat island effects, but lingering post-El Niño warmth adds variance. Resolution hinges on official station readings; monitor 12Z updates for consensus shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
28°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
28°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 reveals profound forecast uncertainty, with 28°C slightly leading at 26% amid near-equal 25.5% odds across cooler (20-27°C) and warmer (29°C+) buckets, driven by diverging global weather models. ECMWF ensembles project a high-pressure ridge fostering highs near 27-29°C via subsidence warming, while GFS and Chinese CMA models anticipate a weakening cold front capping peaks at 22-25°C with sea breeze moderation. Historical March data from Shenzhen observatory averages 24°C highs, amplified by urban heat island effects, but lingering post-El Niño warmth adds variance. Resolution hinges on official station readings; monitor 12Z updates for consensus shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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