Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 21 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts clustering around 25-26°C but diverging by 2-3°C due to variable cloud cover and residual frontal influences from recent southern China systems. These leading outcomes edge ahead as implied probabilities because historical March 21 highs at Bao'an station average 24°C, boosted by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect amplifying diurnal peaks under partly sunny conditions projected by latest runs. Cooler bids like 19-23°C gain traction from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight lows in the mid-teens, while extremes below 18°C or above 28°C remain outliers absent heatwaves or cold snaps, keeping the market tightly balanced ahead of final 00Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Shenzhen em 21 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Shenzhen em 21 de março?
25°C 26%
26°C 26%
20°C 25%
21°C 25%
18°C ou menos
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C
25%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
25%
28°C ou mais
25%
25°C 26%
26°C 26%
20°C 25%
21°C 25%
18°C ou menos
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C
25%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
25%
28°C ou mais
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 21 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with ECMWF and GFS forecasts clustering around 25-26°C but diverging by 2-3°C due to variable cloud cover and residual frontal influences from recent southern China systems. These leading outcomes edge ahead as implied probabilities because historical March 21 highs at Bao'an station average 24°C, boosted by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect amplifying diurnal peaks under partly sunny conditions projected by latest runs. Cooler bids like 19-23°C gain traction from potential sea breeze moderation or overnight lows in the mid-teens, while extremes below 18°C or above 28°C remain outliers absent heatwaves or cold snaps, keeping the market tightly balanced ahead of final 00Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions