Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS show significant spread in forecasted highs for Chongqing on March 24, with peaks ranging 14–22°C across runs, fueling evenly distributed trader odds across outcomes from 10°C or below to 20°C+. Recent CMA updates indicate mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover tempering solar heating, but diel temperature maxima hinge on afternoon convective activity and urban heat island effects amplifying 1–2°C in the city core. Historical March norms hover at 17–18°C, yet this year's early spring warmth adds upside risk to 19–20°C binned probabilities; traders await 12Z model refresh for resolution clarity amid 2–3°C ensemble standard deviation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
10°C or below 26%
11°C 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
10°C or below
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C or higher
26%
10°C or below 26%
11°C 26%
12°C 26%
13°C 26%
10°C or below
26%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS show significant spread in forecasted highs for Chongqing on March 24, with peaks ranging 14–22°C across runs, fueling evenly distributed trader odds across outcomes from 10°C or below to 20°C+. Recent CMA updates indicate mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover tempering solar heating, but diel temperature maxima hinge on afternoon convective activity and urban heat island effects amplifying 1–2°C in the city core. Historical March norms hover at 17–18°C, yet this year's early spring warmth adds upside risk to 19–20°C binned probabilities; traders await 12Z model refresh for resolution clarity amid 2–3°C ensemble standard deviation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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