Latest forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward a Seoul high of 12-14°C on March 22, with market-implied odds favoring 14°C or higher at 31.5% amid a closely contested field. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula is ushering mild southerly airflow, elevating temperatures above the historical March 22 average of about 11°C, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks due to variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Recent model runs have boosted warmer outcomes by 5-10 points since yesterday, as low wind shear enhances solar insolation; traders eye hourly KMA updates for resolution-defining maxima from Gimpo Airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
14°C or higher 32%
12°C 26%
13°C 22%
11°C 16%
$73,348 Vol.
$73,348 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
26%
13°C
22%
14°C or higher
32%
14°C or higher 32%
12°C 26%
13°C 22%
11°C 16%
$73,348 Vol.
$73,348 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
26%
13°C
22%
14°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward a Seoul high of 12-14°C on March 22, with market-implied odds favoring 14°C or higher at 31.5% amid a closely contested field. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula is ushering mild southerly airflow, elevating temperatures above the historical March 22 average of about 11°C, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in diurnal peaks due to variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Recent model runs have boosted warmer outcomes by 5-10 points since yesterday, as low wind shear enhances solar insolation; traders eye hourly KMA updates for resolution-defining maxima from Gimpo Airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions