Trader sentiment clusters around 13-16°C highs for Seoul on March 23, with 16°C or higher edging out at 26% implied probability, propelled by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of 14-16°C daytime peaks under building high pressure and mild southerly flows. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing divergent cloud cover—thinner cirrus boosting insolation for 15-16°C versus thicker stratus capping at 13-14°C—and jet stream undulations that could usher cooler Siberian air. Historical late-March norms hover near 12-13°C, but recent solar forcing and reduced precipitation risk elevate warmer odds, though diurnal timing and urban heat islands add resolution uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seul em 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Seul em 23 de março?
16°C ou mais 27%
15°C 23%
13°C 18%
14°C 18%
$10,842 Vol.
$10,842 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
11%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
23%
16°C ou mais
27%
16°C ou mais 27%
15°C 23%
13°C 18%
14°C 18%
$10,842 Vol.
$10,842 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
11%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
23%
16°C ou mais
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 13-16°C highs for Seoul on March 23, with 16°C or higher edging out at 26% implied probability, propelled by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of 14-16°C daytime peaks under building high pressure and mild southerly flows. Differentiating factors include ECMWF and GFS model ensembles showing divergent cloud cover—thinner cirrus boosting insolation for 15-16°C versus thicker stratus capping at 13-14°C—and jet stream undulations that could usher cooler Siberian air. Historical late-March norms hover near 12-13°C, but recent solar forcing and reduced precipitation risk elevate warmer odds, though diurnal timing and urban heat islands add resolution uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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