Recent MetService forecasts point to a high of 21°C in Wellington on March 22, driven by developing northwesterlies ushering mild air from the Tasman Sea, fueling trader optimism for 19–21°C outcomes at 27%, 27%, and 19.5% implied probabilities. However, ensemble models from global systems like ECMWF and GFS average closer to 19.8°C, with coastal sea breezes potentially capping peaks at 19°C amid typical March variability—historical averages sit at 20.1°C per NIWA data. Low odds for extremes reflect settled anticyclonic patterns minimizing outliers, though final observations from Wellington Airport will resolve amid narrow 2–3°C model spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Wellington em 22 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Wellington em 22 de março?
19°C 27%
20°C 27%
21°C 20%
18°C 16%
$14,085 Vol.
$14,085 Vol.
12°C ou menos
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
9%
18°C
16%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
20%
22°C ou mais
2%
19°C 27%
20°C 27%
21°C 20%
18°C 16%
$14,085 Vol.
$14,085 Vol.
12°C ou menos
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
9%
18°C
16%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
20%
22°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService forecasts point to a high of 21°C in Wellington on March 22, driven by developing northwesterlies ushering mild air from the Tasman Sea, fueling trader optimism for 19–21°C outcomes at 27%, 27%, and 19.5% implied probabilities. However, ensemble models from global systems like ECMWF and GFS average closer to 19.8°C, with coastal sea breezes potentially capping peaks at 19°C amid typical March variability—historical averages sit at 20.1°C per NIWA data. Low odds for extremes reflect settled anticyclonic patterns minimizing outliers, though final observations from Wellington Airport will resolve amid narrow 2–3°C model spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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