Latest NOAA ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward NYC highs of 58-61°F on March 22, with 60-61°F edging out at 18.5% amid mild southerly winds and high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include ECMWF models projecting slightly warmer peaks near 61°F under clearer skies, versus cooler GFS runs around 57°F factoring potential afternoon cloudiness from an approaching weak front. Historical March 22 averages hover at 52°F, but recent analogs from 2023's variable spring patterns support this range. Uncertainty lingers in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects, with final NWS updates expected 24 hours prior likely to sharpen odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Nova York em 22 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Nova York em 22 de março?
60-61°F 19%
56-57°F 18%
58-59°F 18%
54-55°F 14%
$31,985 Vol.
$31,985 Vol.
53°F ou menos
13%
54-55°F
14%
56-57°F
18%
58-59°F
18%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
2%
20-21°C
2%
21-22°C
1%
72°F ou mais
<1%
60-61°F 19%
56-57°F 18%
58-59°F 18%
54-55°F 14%
$31,985 Vol.
$31,985 Vol.
53°F ou menos
13%
54-55°F
14%
56-57°F
18%
58-59°F
18%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
2%
20-21°C
2%
21-22°C
1%
72°F ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward NYC highs of 58-61°F on March 22, with 60-61°F edging out at 18.5% amid mild southerly winds and high pressure ridging. Differentiating factors include ECMWF models projecting slightly warmer peaks near 61°F under clearer skies, versus cooler GFS runs around 57°F factoring potential afternoon cloudiness from an approaching weak front. Historical March 22 averages hover at 52°F, but recent analogs from 2023's variable spring patterns support this range. Uncertainty lingers in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects, with final NWS updates expected 24 hours prior likely to sharpen odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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