Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 21°C in Chengdu on March 20, with 78.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration projecting mild spring conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent GFS updates reinforce this, showing daytime highs stabilizing around 20-22°C amid light southerly winds and urban heat amplification in the Sichuan Basin, where March climatology averages 18-20°C but features 2-3°C variability from frontal passages. Lower odds for 22°C (39.5%) and 24°C+ (24.5%) reflect ensemble spread, while cooler outcomes like 15°C (14.7%) diminish as cold air masses retreat northward, per satellite-derived temperature anomalies. Monitor CMA's 12Z update for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 20 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chengdu em 20 de março?
21°C 90%
24°C ou mais 35%
23°C 8.0%
14°C ou menos <1%
$20,129 Vol.
$20,129 Vol.
14°C ou menos
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
70%
22°C
41%
23°C
8%
24°C ou mais
35%
21°C 90%
24°C ou mais 35%
23°C 8.0%
14°C ou menos <1%
$20,129 Vol.
$20,129 Vol.
14°C ou menos
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
70%
22°C
41%
23°C
8%
24°C ou mais
35%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 21°C in Chengdu on March 20, with 78.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration projecting mild spring conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent GFS updates reinforce this, showing daytime highs stabilizing around 20-22°C amid light southerly winds and urban heat amplification in the Sichuan Basin, where March climatology averages 18-20°C but features 2-3°C variability from frontal passages. Lower odds for 22°C (39.5%) and 24°C+ (24.5%) reflect ensemble spread, while cooler outcomes like 15°C (14.7%) diminish as cold air masses retreat northward, per satellite-derived temperature anomalies. Monitor CMA's 12Z update for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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