Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21°C (33%) and 22°C (25.5%) as the likeliest highest temperatures in Tel Aviv on March 20, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs near 21.5°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds moderating Mediterranean warmth. The 20°C outcome (20.5%) gains traction from historical March climatology—averaging 19.5–20.5°C at Ben Gurion Airport's official station—and slight model cool biases in sea-breeze scenarios, while 23°C fades due to low upper-air instability. Recent IMS updates and GFS run-00 revisions nudged odds upward from cooler 20°C priors, with resolution hinging on peak afternoon readings amid 2–3°C ensemble spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 20?
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 21%
23°C 7.5%
$26,720 Vol.
$26,720 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
21%
21°C
33%
22°C
26%
23°C
8%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 21%
23°C 7.5%
$26,720 Vol.
$26,720 Vol.
17°C or below
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
21%
21°C
33%
22°C
26%
23°C
8%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21°C (33%) and 22°C (25.5%) as the likeliest highest temperatures in Tel Aviv on March 20, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime highs near 21.5°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds moderating Mediterranean warmth. The 20°C outcome (20.5%) gains traction from historical March climatology—averaging 19.5–20.5°C at Ben Gurion Airport's official station—and slight model cool biases in sea-breeze scenarios, while 23°C fades due to low upper-air instability. Recent IMS updates and GFS run-00 revisions nudged odds upward from cooler 20°C priors, with resolution hinging on peak afternoon readings amid 2–3°C ensemble spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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