Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (37.5% implied probability) as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild highs in the 17-19°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent observations from the Israel Meteorological Service confirm daytime peaks of 17-18°C in recent days, aligning with March climatological norms of 19°C average highs and low variability from sea breezes moderating coastal warmth. Minimal convective activity and neutral wind patterns reduce outlier risks, positioning 17°C (23.5%) and 19°C (18%) as strong contenders, while extremes like 23°C+ carry just 2.1% odds amid forecast convergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
18°C 38%
17°C 24%
19°C 18%
16°C 10%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
8%
16°C
10%
17°C
24%
18°C
38%
19°C
18%
20°C
6%
21°C
6%
22°C
4%
23°C or higher
2%
18°C 38%
17°C 24%
19°C 18%
16°C 10%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
5%
15°C
8%
16°C
10%
17°C
24%
18°C
38%
19°C
18%
20°C
6%
21°C
6%
22°C
4%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (37.5% implied probability) as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 22, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting mild highs in the 17-19°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean. Recent observations from the Israel Meteorological Service confirm daytime peaks of 17-18°C in recent days, aligning with March climatological norms of 19°C average highs and low variability from sea breezes moderating coastal warmth. Minimal convective activity and neutral wind patterns reduce outlier risks, positioning 17°C (23.5%) and 19°C (18%) as strong contenders, while extremes like 23°C+ carry just 2.1% odds amid forecast convergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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