Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid indicate a daytime high of approximately 35°C on July 2, with model guidance showing stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover supporting this outcome. This aligns with the market's leading 35°C probability at 37%, followed by 34°C at 24.5%, reflecting consensus across short-range models on maximum temperatures near seasonal averages amid lingering warmth from a late-June heat wave. Key variables include diurnal heating rates over the central plateau, minimal precipitation risk, and potential slight cooling from northerly flow that could cap readings at 34°C or allow a brief spike to 36°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the coming 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 2?
35°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$145,219 Vol.
$145,219 Vol.
2 jul 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$145,219 Vol.
$145,219 Vol.
2 jul 2026
31°C or below
$1,871 Vol.
No
32°C
$18,849 Vol.
No
33°C
$18,874 Vol.
No
34°C
$19,744 Vol.
No
35°C
$18,736 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$22,742 Vol.
No
37°C
$16,742 Vol.
No
38°C
$13,693 Vol.
No
39°C
$4,957 Vol.
No
40°C
$3,638 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$5,373 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid indicate a daytime high of approximately 35°C on July 2, with model guidance showing stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover supporting this outcome. This aligns with the market's leading 35°C probability at 37%, followed by 34°C at 24.5%, reflecting consensus across short-range models on maximum temperatures near seasonal averages amid lingering warmth from a late-June heat wave. Key variables include diurnal heating rates over the central plateau, minimal precipitation risk, and potential slight cooling from northerly flow that could cap readings at 34°C or allow a brief spike to 36°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the coming 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$145,219Data de Término
2 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid indicate a daytime high of approximately 35°C on July 2, with model guidance showing stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover supporting this outcome. This aligns with the market's leading 35°C probability at 37%, followed by 34°C at 24.5%, reflecting consensus across short-range models on maximum temperatures near seasonal averages amid lingering warmth from a late-June heat wave. Key variables include diurnal heating rates over the central plateau, minimal precipitation risk, and potential slight cooling from northerly flow that could cap readings at 34°C or allow a brief spike to 36°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the coming 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$145,219Data de Término
2 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Recent AEMET forecasts for Madrid indicate a daytime high of approximately 35°C on July 2, with model guidance showing stable high-pressure conditions and limited cloud cover supporting this outcome. This aligns with the market's leading 35°C probability at 37%, followed by 34°C at 24.5%, reflecting consensus across short-range models on maximum temperatures near seasonal averages amid lingering warmth from a late-June heat wave. Key variables include diurnal heating rates over the central plateau, minimal precipitation risk, and potential slight cooling from northerly flow that could cap readings at 34°C or allow a brief spike to 36°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the coming 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions