Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts anchor trader consensus around a 20-21°C high for Milan today, with 21°C leading at 40.5% implied probability under a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies over northern Italy, following ARPA Lombardia's noted progressive warming from yesterday's 16-18°C plains maxima. The tight race—20°C at 32% and 22°C at 25.5%—reflects genuine model uncertainty from ensemble spreads, particularly afternoon cloud variations affecting solar insolation and boundary-layer mixing, which could shave or boost peak temperatures by 1-2°C. Historical April climatology averages 18-19°C highs, but current ridging favors above-normal warmth; monitor Malpensa Airport observations for resolution as maximum heating hits mid-afternoon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on April 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 15?
21°C 38%
20°C 32%
22°C 28%
23°C or higher 5.4%
$45,990 Vol.
$45,990 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
32%
21°C
38%
22°C
28%
23°C or higher
5%
21°C 38%
20°C 32%
22°C 28%
23°C or higher 5.4%
$45,990 Vol.
$45,990 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
32%
21°C
38%
22°C
28%
23°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:17 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts anchor trader consensus around a 20-21°C high for Milan today, with 21°C leading at 40.5% implied probability under a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies over northern Italy, following ARPA Lombardia's noted progressive warming from yesterday's 16-18°C plains maxima. The tight race—20°C at 32% and 22°C at 25.5%—reflects genuine model uncertainty from ensemble spreads, particularly afternoon cloud variations affecting solar insolation and boundary-layer mixing, which could shave or boost peak temperatures by 1-2°C. Historical April climatology averages 18-19°C highs, but current ridging favors above-normal warmth; monitor Malpensa Airport observations for resolution as maximum heating hits mid-afternoon.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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