Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 4 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 4 de julho?
22°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$98,057 Vol.
$98,057 Vol.
4 jul 2026
17°C ou menos
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Sim
23°C
Não
24°C
Não
25°C
Não
26°C
Não
27°C ou mais
Não
22°C 100.0%
17°C ou menos <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$98,057 Vol.
$98,057 Vol.
4 jul 2026
17°C ou menos
$1,881 Vol.
Não
18°C
$8,175 Vol.
Não
19°C
$12,518 Vol.
Não
20°C
$10,516 Vol.
Não
21°C
$35,622 Vol.
Não
22°C
$9,705 Vol.
Sim
23°C
$5,337 Vol.
Não
24°C
$3,772 Vol.
Não
25°C
$3,287 Vol.
Não
26°C
$3,439 Vol.
Não
27°C ou mais
$3,807 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$98,057Data de Término
4 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98,057Data de Término
4 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a moderating pattern over Moscow, with daytime highs most likely peaking between 21–23°C on July 4 amid increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit solar heating. This consensus drives the near-even market pricing across those outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing of precipitation and the strength of any residual warm advection ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Historical July averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet current runs show slightly cooler conditions than seasonal norms due to enhanced mid-level moisture. Updated guidance from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF high-resolution runs expected over the next 48 hours will refine peak temperature estimates and could shift implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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