Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seul em 1º de maio?
19°C 100.0%
10°C ou menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$337,155 Vol.
$337,155 Vol.
10°C ou menos
Não
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Sim
20°C ou mais
Não
19°C 100.0%
10°C ou menos <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$337,155 Vol.
$337,155 Vol.
10°C ou menos
Não
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Sim
20°C ou mais
Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Korea Meteorological Administration observations confirm Seoul's highest temperature reached exactly 19°C on May 1, 2026, at the reference station, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible 0.1% odds for 20°C or higher. A persistent cool air mass over the Korean Peninsula suppressed diurnal heating under mostly cloudy skies, with short-range forecast models precisely capturing hourly peaks of 16–19°C and no significant wind or insolation to push beyond. Evening readings at nearby Incheon International Airport fell to 14.4°C by 22:00 KST, solidifying the daily maximum well before midnight resolution. While May climatological averages exceed 22°C, this atypical synoptic pattern minimized upside risk; only an unprecedented data revision or unforecast late surge—both highly improbable—could challenge the positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions