Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's April 19 high temperature, with 21°C or higher edging at 26.5% amid ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering near 18°C. Latest 00Z model runs show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe drawing mild southwesterly flow, potentially pushing peaks above 20°C if subsidence suppresses clouds, while divergent members highlight risks of cooler 16-17°C outcomes from increased cloudiness or weak frontal passages. IMGW observations note recent spring-like mildness with highs around 15°C on April 17, aligning with climatological mid-April averages of 13-15°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New ensemble updates from ECMWF expected within 12 hours could sharpen resolution criteria based on Warsaw Chopin Airport measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 19?
18°C 29%
19°C 24%
21°C or higher 24%
17°C 24%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
24%
18°C
29%
19°C
24%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
16%
18°C 29%
19°C 24%
21°C or higher 24%
17°C 24%
NOVO
NOVO
19 abr 2026
11°C or below
$370 Vol.
1%
12°C
$260 Vol.
1%
13°C
$221 Vol.
2%
14°C
$183 Vol.
2%
15°C
$0 Vol.
10%
16°C
$49 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$28 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
11%
21°C or higher
$2 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's April 19 high temperature, with 21°C or higher edging at 26.5% amid ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering near 18°C. Latest 00Z model runs show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe drawing mild southwesterly flow, potentially pushing peaks above 20°C if subsidence suppresses clouds, while divergent members highlight risks of cooler 16-17°C outcomes from increased cloudiness or weak frontal passages. IMGW observations note recent spring-like mildness with highs around 15°C on April 17, aligning with climatological mid-April averages of 13-15°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New ensemble updates from ECMWF expected within 12 hours could sharpen resolution criteria based on Warsaw Chopin Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ET
Volume
$905Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's April 19 high temperature, with 21°C or higher edging at 26.5% amid ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering near 18°C. Latest 00Z model runs show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe drawing mild southwesterly flow, potentially pushing peaks above 20°C if subsidence suppresses clouds, while divergent members highlight risks of cooler 16-17°C outcomes from increased cloudiness or weak frontal passages. IMGW observations note recent spring-like mildness with highs around 15°C on April 17, aligning with climatological mid-April averages of 13-15°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New ensemble updates from ECMWF expected within 12 hours could sharpen resolution criteria based on Warsaw Chopin Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$905Data de Término
19 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 17, 2026, 12:43 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Warsaw's April 19 high temperature, with 21°C or higher edging at 26.5% amid ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering near 18°C. Latest 00Z model runs show a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Europe drawing mild southwesterly flow, potentially pushing peaks above 20°C if subsidence suppresses clouds, while divergent members highlight risks of cooler 16-17°C outcomes from increased cloudiness or weak frontal passages. IMGW observations note recent spring-like mildness with highs around 15°C on April 17, aligning with climatological mid-April averages of 13-15°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New ensemble updates from ECMWF expected within 12 hours could sharpen resolution criteria based on Warsaw Chopin Airport measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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