Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 4?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 Vol.
$50,621 Vol.
4 mai 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,621 Vol.
$50,621 Vol.
4 mai 2026
22°C or below
$482 Vol.
No
23°C
$758 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,236 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,223 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,948 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,620 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,854 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$5,986 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,381 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,028 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$6,106 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$50,621Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$50,621Data de Término
4 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 28°C in Wuhan on May 4, driven by real-time observational data from the official Wuhan Tianhe International Airport meteorological station, where maximum readings peaked at 28°C during midday hours under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This aligns with short-range forecast model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, projecting highs around 27–29°C amid typical early May conditions in the Yangtze River basin, where average May maxima hover near 26.4°C based on historical climatology. Scenarios challenging this would require an upward data revision from late-afternoon or evening observations exceeding 28°C or a station measurement anomaly, both highly improbable given stabilizing evening temperatures and consistent hourly METAR reports. Final resolution awaits the airport's daily maximum confirmation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions