Recent large-magnitude events, including the August 10 Colombia M7.4 and August 14 Indonesia M7.7 earthquakes, have elevated global seismicity through aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring routinely records at M5.5 and above. Weekly counts of M5.5+ events historically average 6–14 with substantial variance driven by tectonic cycles and aftershock productivity, placing trader-implied probabilities near evenly across bins from ≤6 to >13. Key differentiating factors include the duration and productivity of ongoing aftershock sequences versus background plate-boundary activity, plus any new mainshocks that could push totals higher. USGS catalog data and real-time seismic networks provide the primary inputs for resolution, with counts expected to settle within the typical range absent exceptional clustering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos sismos de 5,5 ou mais de 17 de agosto a 23 de agosto?
Quantos sismos de 5,5 ou mais de 17 de agosto a 23 de agosto?
>13 22%
≤6 21%
9 13%
8 11%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
≤6
21%
7
9%
8
11%
9
13%
10
10%
11
9%
12
8%
13
6%
>13
22%
>13 22%
≤6 21%
9 13%
8 11%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
≤6
$1,385 Vol.
21%
7
$134 Vol.
9%
8
$209 Vol.
11%
9
$204 Vol.
13%
10
$189 Vol.
10%
11
$134 Vol.
9%
12
$145 Vol.
8%
13
$169 Vol.
6%
>13
$635 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent large-magnitude events, including the August 10 Colombia M7.4 and August 14 Indonesia M7.7 earthquakes, have elevated global seismicity through aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring routinely records at M5.5 and above. Weekly counts of M5.5+ events historically average 6–14 with substantial variance driven by tectonic cycles and aftershock productivity, placing trader-implied probabilities near evenly across bins from ≤6 to >13. Key differentiating factors include the duration and productivity of ongoing aftershock sequences versus background plate-boundary activity, plus any new mainshocks that could push totals higher. USGS catalog data and real-time seismic networks provide the primary inputs for resolution, with counts expected to settle within the typical range absent exceptional clustering.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$3,205Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent large-magnitude events, including the August 10 Colombia M7.4 and August 14 Indonesia M7.7 earthquakes, have elevated global seismicity through aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring routinely records at M5.5 and above. Weekly counts of M5.5+ events historically average 6–14 with substantial variance driven by tectonic cycles and aftershock productivity, placing trader-implied probabilities near evenly across bins from ≤6 to >13. Key differentiating factors include the duration and productivity of ongoing aftershock sequences versus background plate-boundary activity, plus any new mainshocks that could push totals higher. USGS catalog data and real-time seismic networks provide the primary inputs for resolution, with counts expected to settle within the typical range absent exceptional clustering.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$3,205Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent large-magnitude events, including the August 10 Colombia M7.4 and August 14 Indonesia M7.7 earthquakes, have elevated global seismicity through aftershock sequences that USGS monitoring routinely records at M5.5 and above. Weekly counts of M5.5+ events historically average 6–14 with substantial variance driven by tectonic cycles and aftershock productivity, placing trader-implied probabilities near evenly across bins from ≤6 to >13. Key differentiating factors include the duration and productivity of ongoing aftershock sequences versus background plate-boundary activity, plus any new mainshocks that could push totals higher. USGS catalog data and real-time seismic networks provide the primary inputs for resolution, with counts expected to settle within the typical range absent exceptional clustering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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